Beware the exit polls
Many of you might remember that quite a few people, even some who might have appeared superficially credible (as well as quite a few cranks) were saying that the 2000 and 2004 exit polls indicated widespread vote fraud in those elections. Indeed a lot of people believe that exit polls are reliable indicators of voter sentiment. That’s not necessarily so. For the details see my interview with political science professor Mark Lindeman from July of 2006, particularly Part II. On exit poll reliability, Mark Lindeman said, “Short answer: no, they aren’t [accurate]. Actually, I had to go back all the way to 1980 to find a U.S. presidential exit poll that seems to have been accurate within sampling error. There could be one or two others; partly it could depend on how one assesses accuracy.” You might also want to read Parts I and III.
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